The Dutch housing market is already extremely competitive, as house prices continue to rise across the country, but experts are expecting it will only get worse. Economists at Rabobank have predicted that, by the end of 2022, house prices will rise by an average of over 90.000 euros.
The outbreak of COVID-19 meant many - including economists at Rabobank - expected house prices to dip and the economy to crash. The bank’s initial predictions for the coming months were significantly more optimistic for prospective buyers, but the latest numbers paint a very different picture.
Figures published by the Dutch bank predict that anyone looking to buy a house in the near future should expect to face rising prices; the price of owner-occupied homes will rise by an average of 14,4 percent this year, before rising by an additional 11,5 percent next year. This amounts to a total increase of 28 percent, equivalent to a difference of more than 90.000 euros.
There are a number of reasons for this change in outlook. Not only does the national economy appear to be recovering at a relatively rapid pace, but unemployment and interest rates on mortgages remain low. Furthermore, so far this year house prices across the Netherlands have risen at a faster rate than was anticipated.
Of course, some regions and cities should expect more drastic price hikes. For example, while Amsterdam has some of the highest property prices in the country, the city will likely experience the smallest increase this year (around 12 percent). Meanwhile, Flevoland (Almere) is looking at a 20 percent increase this year, with a further 15 percent expected in 2022.
Areas outside of the big cities like Amsterdam and Utrecht, where house prices are already extremely high, will see the sharpest increase over the coming months. This is also because, as a result of COVID-19 and the work from home culture that has become exceedingly popular, a number of families have looked for a house outside of the Randstad, where prices are more affordable, but the increase in demand and limited supply will have a severe impact on prices in the near future.
"This is a gloomy message for starters," says Rabobank housing market economist Stefan Groot. According to the bank’s calculations, the rise in prices will mean that even with the current low interest rates, buyers will likely face mortgage repayments of around 300 euros gross extra per month for 30 years.