Dutch consumers estimate inflation to be almost triple what it actually is
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By Simone Jacobs
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Consumers in the Netherlands have estimated inflation to be almost three times higher than actual inflation. While inflation has been sitting at around 3 percent for the last two years, Dutch consumers perceive it to be a lot higher at 8 percent.
More Dutch residents expect inflation to be high
New figures by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) have shown that consumers typically believe inflation is significantly higher than it actually is, especially since the energy crisis in 2022. Inflation reached 2,9 percent in June 2026, however consumers perceived it to be 8 percent.
According to CBS, this difference is a lot larger than it was in 2022, despite actual inflation now being closer to pre-energy crisis levels. “People were really shocked when inflation suddenly shot up after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. They still haven't processed that. The old prices are still in their heads,” CBS economist Frank Notten told De Telegraaf. “Even now that inflation has dropped below 3 percent, we still find everything very expensive.”
Recent increases in estimated inflation could be linked to the tensions in the Middle East and how they are affecting fuel prices. Petrol prices reached record highs this year when the Strait of Hormuz was closed following the conflict.
Consumer confidence is low throughout Europe
Notten also pointed out that memories of price increases stick out in consumers’ minds longer than those of price reductions, which tends to make consumers feel more pessimistic about prices.
"That is not only true in the Netherlands. You see it throughout the EU,” says Notten. “Consumer confidence is low there too, and people are complaining bitterly about the high prices. So it is not the case that we grumble about it more than the rest."
While Dutch residents already think inflation is too high, experts have warned that the full impact has yet to hit the consumer. Soon, businesses will not be able to avoid passing the high costs of fuel on to the consumer.
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Editor for the Netherlands at IamExpat Media. Simone studied Genetics and Zoology at the University of Pretoria in South Africa before moving to the Netherlands, where she has been working as a writer and editor since 2022. One thing she loves more than creating content is consuming it, mainly by reading books by the dozen. Other than being a book dragon, she is also a nature lover and enjoys hiking and animal training.Read more