Colder winter may be on the cards for the Netherlands this year

Based on historical patterns, a weather forecast by Severe Weather Europe has predicted that the coming winter could be colder than normal for the Netherlands. 

Higher chance of cold Dutch winter for 2025

Severe Weather Europe has predicted that the winter of 2025/26 will be colder than normal in North America and possibly Europe. Several factors are behind the forecast. 

According to meteorologist Andrej Flis, a La Niña is developing, which is a cooling of the Pacific Ocean waters that influences global weather patterns, along with another weather phenomenon called the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), where a circle of cold air over the North Pole is disrupted and moves south.

When all these factors have occurred in the past, the winters were colder and snowier than usual. "It seems the conditions are converging again this year, increasing the chance of a classic, severe winter," Flis told RTL Nieuws. 

Seasonal forecasts often inaccurate, Dutch meteorologist warns

Every autumn, as the days get shorter and we creep towards the winter months, weather reports are published predicting the weather for the upcoming season. However, Buienradar meteorologist William Huizinga warns that people should take these reports with a grain of salt, as forecasts for an entire season are still a very new concept. 

While he advises caution, even Huizinga admits that the new forecast shows merit. “You have to be careful with that. But I have to say: this article is well-researched and definitely makes sense." 

Basing the prediction on a series of historical winters that are similar to the current situation “strengthens the expectation”, but there is still a lot of guesswork involved. "Minimal shifts in weather systems can have major consequences in Europe. So I don't really dare to trust it completely," Huizinga concludes.