The future for the Dutch economy received a subdued assessment from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).
Due to a combination of negative factors, such as increasing unemployment, lower (household) consumption as a result of higher pension contributions, lower pension payments, restrictive government policy, and falling house prices, a recovery will be a muted one. Nevertheless, the forecast does state that there will be a recovery, which is good news for an economy mired in a recession.
The economic recession is expected to last throughout 2012, with GDP shrinking by 0,75 percent. The following years should bring a slow but steady economic recovery; with GDP increasing by 1,25 percent in 2013, and 1,5 percent in 2014 and 2015.
However. despite the expected future growth in GDP, unemployment is expected to rise, peaking at 545.000 in 2013. Hence, the term "jobless recovery" could be used to describe the short-term economic future of the Netherlands. In addition, the national debt will rise to 76 percent of GDP in 2015.
The German economy, and growing markets in the developing world, offer opportunities for the Netherlands for export-led businesses. The biggest risks come from the European banking sector and debt ridden Eurozone economies. The Netherlands is so integrated into the European economy, that any troubles in other member-states are likely to be felt at home as well.
› For more info download the Central Economic Plan 2012 (in Dutch)