House prices will continue to fall in 2024, Dutch bank predicts
ABN AMRO: House prices will fall by 3 percent next year
Last autumn, both ABN AMRO and Rabobank agreed that the cost of buying a house in the Netherlands would fall in 2023 by between 2,5 and 3 percent. By the beginning of this year, those forecasts had been adjusted, with ABN AMRO reporting that prices were falling faster than initially expected, and would drop by up to 6 percent over the course of 2023.
A few months on, and it’s true that house prices in the Netherlands have fallen slightly since peaking during the coronavirus pandemic. Now, economists over at ABN AMRO have predicted that prices will fall by 5 percent in 2023, followed by a further 3 percent drop next year.
This doesn’t mark the start of a long-term trend, however, with the bank emphasising that, after the decrease expected in 2024, “the end of the price correction is in sight.” This means the cost of buying a house in the Netherlands is likely to rise again from 2025.
Cost of buying a house in the Netherlands to remain high
In spite of these forecasts, ABN AMRO explains that salaries are not high enough to make buying a house in the Netherlands an affordable option for many - especially for first-time buyers. This means that the number of housing transactions (i.e. the number of residential properties that are sold) will fall by 5 percent this year and 2,5 percent in 2024.
"The lack of homes remains great and threatens to increase due to difficulties in the construction industry," housing market economist Philip Bokeloh told NU, adding that it will take time before the historic increases in wages seen over the past several months make any real impact: "Gradually and indirectly, housing becomes more affordable due to higher wages."
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