House prices in the Netherlands will fall in 2023, Rabobank predicts

House prices in the Netherlands will fall in 2023, Rabobank predicts

Anyone hoping to buy a house in the Netherlands will be happy to hear that there is some light at the end of the tunnel: after years of house prices rising steadily and the Dutch housing market becoming increasingly competitive, Rabobank has predicted that house prices will fall before the end of next year. 

Cost of buying a house in the Netherlands to fall in 2023

Recent reports have revealed how dire the situation on the Dutch housing market has become. Not only have house prices in the Netherlands doubled over the last nine years, but someone earning an average salary can afford to buy just 1 percent of homes. While the situation does appear to be cooling off, Rabobank’s prediction will likely come as a relief to many who dream of owning their own home. 

Economists at the Dutch bank expect that, over the course of next year, house prices will rise by an average of 3 percent - significantly lower than the 15,2 percent projected for 2022 - before falling at the end of 2023. The experts attribute the falling prices to high interest rates for mortgages, the energy crisis and uncertain economic forecasts

Dutch house prices rising at a much slower rate

Prices aren’t going to drop sharply anytime soon, but in the short term, the cooling off of the Dutch housing market does seem to be holding steady. The most recent figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and the Land Registry revealed that house prices rose by “just” 11,9 percent between August 2021 and last month. 

This marks a notable drop compared to the 14,5 percent recorded in July, and the increases of over 20 percent that were seen last winter. Prices continue to rise, but CBS emphasises that the growth has been happening at an increasingly slower rate since May.

Victoria Séveno


Victoria Séveno

Victoria grew up in Amsterdam, before moving to the UK to study English and Related Literature at the University of York and completing her NCTJ course at the Press Association...

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ALISHAR2 17:09 | 4 October 2022

Hi. What do you think about the new build projects? since material is getting more expensive every day, do you expect a drop in their prices too? Thanks.

tachionxx 19:34 | 22 May 2023

House market in NL has always been substantially artificially doped by several factors such as the restriction to build, the restriction to allow new land to build, the attraction of new students and workers from abroad and the advertisement methods that the Real-estate National Association was using keeping the "VERKOCHT" label on houses for months just to push the sensation that houses were sold as fast as bread, creating a rush to buy. A media technique that indeed worked, with outrageous overbidding! All of this together with low interest rate, extremely risky 110% mortgage rate, high rental prices and an overall advertisement to many conferences and exhibitions on how is cool to study in the Netherlands. The reality is that houses in NL are pretty hold, badly kept and badly built, with poor materials. Many of them have asbestos problems, old water pipes, thin walls, low energy label and weak foundation just to name a few. Their really low quality makes the absurd high prices a real scam and a clear inflated bubbles, that for some reason is kept artificially inflated...for the moment. Renovation material is also very limited in NL, where almost just few selection of tiles, floor, and inserts are available as clearly visible from the very similar insides of houses on Funda. At the same time, despite what Dutch inhabitants may think after years and years of brain wash on TV and newpapers, Netherlands is not really a nice country to live in. Neither in term of food, culture, weather and attractions, nor in term of social environment and interactions. Most of the expats that are supporting the real technological development of the country, are here mainly for the work opportunities and the good salaries, and will be ready to leave as soon as better opportunities will arise, leaving empty houses behind them. The Dutch system could guarantee the actual status due to both a reasonable organization but also thanks to substantial cuts to the social assistance like the private healthcare that is draining about 17B EUR annually from the pockets of people, low pension build-up for employees, and their unfair fiscal dumping, tax ruling and royalties fraud , that since 2000 has unfairly drained about 2000 B EUR annually, annually, from the taxation system of the other European partners !! When more fair European communitarian rules will allow other countries to adopt the same or a similar taxation for companies as in NL, when salaries will be updated in the rest of Europe to a more equal level and when people will realize that there are actually much nicer place to live, then the Dutch house market bubble will definitely collapse. The actual increasing interest rate and the high prices partially not cover by Nationale hypotheek garantie will already put buyers and households at risk now, despite the artificially doped system. A house with a real value of 190k is sold today at 450k EUR, with an interest rate of about 5% (that is almost 100% in 20 years), this house is actually paid around 900k EUR in 20 years !!! This is absurd and cannot last forever. It will collapse, I am sure. It will take some more years I guess, but it will happen and it will be a just disaster.