District heating bills could rise by 20% in the Netherlands in 2027

More than 700.000 households in the Netherlands connected to district heating face significantly higher energy bills in 2027 after wholesale gas prices more than tripled this year. The national regulator, the Consumer and Market Authority (ACM), is set to calculate a higher price cap this autumn, leaving locked-in residents with little room to dodge the increase.

Gas market spikes drive up district heating capped rates

Wholesale gas prices in Europe have surged this year, climbing from around 25 euros per megawatt-hour in early 2026 to between 80 and 83 euros in September. Because district heating (stadsverwarming) rates remain legally pegged to natural gas, this jump directly threatens utility bills for residents across the country.

To establish the maximum rate heat suppliers may charge in 2027, the ACM will take three price measurements of one-year gas contracts offered by 10 energy providers. As reported by NU, these key sampling dates fall on September 23, October 23 and November 23.

This multi-date mechanism was introduced in 2025 to cushion consumers against temporary market spikes. "This is an improvement compared to a single measurement moment," energy economist Machiel Mulder from the University of Groningen said. "But if gas prices remain high throughout all three months, that dampening effect largely disappears."

Consumers face price hikes tied to gas benchmarks

Estimates from energy experts highlight a significant potential hit to household budgets. Geert Wirken, an energy expert at comparison site Keuze.nl, calculated that variable heating tariffs could jump by 40 to 45 percent if wholesale gas prices stay near current levels. Because fixed administrative and connection fees account for roughly half of a typical bill, this translates to an overall heating cost increase of around 20 percent for residents.

The current Dutch system pegs heating tariffs to natural gas under the principle that households using district heating should not pay more than those with a standard gas boiler. However, critics argue this benchmark is increasingly outdated as the country transitions away from fossil fuels.

Outdated gas benchmarks & profit safeguards

"It is no longer so logical to keep using the gas boiler as a benchmark," energy economist Machiel Mulder told NU. He noted that while basing tariffs on actual production costs makes more sense, implementing it remains complicated due to wide cost differences between individual networks.

Because district heating customers cannot switch to an alternative supplier, the ACM regulatory cap serves as their primary consumer protection. The regulator also monitors the profitability of heating companies to prevent excessive margins.

"If that maximum price becomes very high, heat companies could potentially make too much profit at that tariff," Mulder said. "That is not allowed." In such cases, suppliers whose operational costs do not justify the maximum rate will be legally required to charge below the ceiling.