As cycling infrastructure in the Netherlands improves year on year, more people make the switch to using bicycles for the commute to work. According to the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), 25 percent of people in the Netherlands cycle to work because of added bike paths - 350.000 people more than what would cycle if there were none.
A study conducted by the CPB focuses on bike paths running on busy roads that are clearly separated from car traffic. To determine how these cycle paths affect commuting behaviour, the organisation used a model to compare the current cycling infrastructure with a scenario without this infrastructure.
Without separate cycle lanes, the number of commuters using bicycles would drop 20 percent and welfare of workers would decrease by 1,2 percent. As more people would use cars and public transport, commutes would also take longer (1,2 percent increase) and cover larger distances (7 percent increase).
If cycling was removed as a mode of transport altogether, driving would see a significant 20 percentage point spike. As a response, commuting distances would rise by 30 percent and traffic speeds would decrease by 2 percent due to traffic congestion. All of this would result in a 6 percentage point drop in worker welfare.
Based on a survey by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) between 2016 and 2022, the CPB determined that cycling is more popular for short trips (less than 5 kilometres) especially in city centres with 55 percent of outings using bicycles, compared to 29 percent using cars.
According to the CPB, designated cycling lanes make it more attractive for people to use their bicycles to get to work as they don’t have to take as many detours through residential areas to avoid roads that are unsafe and busy with cars. This also means more people move to cities that are closer to their workplaces.
Another important conclusion that the study found is that even when car lanes are replaced with cycle paths, this does not lead to a higher number of traffic jams. This is because more travellers make the switch from using cars to bicycles. “A higher average cycling speed, for example by electric bicycles, can further enhance these effects,” wrote the CPB in a press release. “In cities in particular, this can lead to even more bicycle use and shorter travel distances. However, traffic safety must be taken into account.”
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