Expat financial planning: Navigating market volatility in 2026

Every year, financial media is flooded with predictions about the next trending investment. While market awareness matters, expats in the Netherlands need to make investment decisions aligned with their objectives and consistent with their financial plan.

Our global market view and economic projections are framed by the Black Swan theory, where unexpected events happen, are not predicted and have a material impact on global wealth. Let’s explore the current state of the market and how to prepare for and respond to future events.

The financial landscape in 2026 so far

The first half of 2026 can be summarised into three key factors: unexpected geopolitical events, market resilience and inflation. Each provides us with insight into how the financial market is currently performing.

Geopolitical shocks and volatility

Earlier in the year, stock markets fell and quickly recovered after conflict broke out between the US/Israel and Iran. The impact on global trade has been profound, particularly regarding supply chain disruptions and maritime blockages in the Strait of Hormuz. 

As this regional conflict risks expansion, and the Israel-Palestine conflict continues (as does the Russia-Ukraine war), trade patterns are changing and putting inflationary and downward economic growth pressure on most G20 economies. Not to mention creating heightened stock market volatility.

Market resilience in equities and commodities

Despite the many pressures, rising uncertainty and volatility, stock markets have proved resilient and continued to grow. Beyond equity markets, commodities have also drawn significant attention over the last year. 

Since the US-Iran war commenced, we have seen wide swings in oil prices from around 62 US dollars to over 100 dollars per barrel. Gold has stabilised this year but, on a rolling 12-month basis, is considerably higher, reflecting sustained demand for defensive assets during a period of uncertainty. 

Inflation trends and ECB rate policy

Because of persistent market disruptions, inflation risk remains elevated. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates in June to 2,4 percent, the first increase since 2023. Furthermore, EU inflation sits within the 2 to 3 percent target - but only just.

While inflation is currently more contained compared to post-pandemic spikes, it remains a structural factor that must be considered. For international investors, preparing for long-term inflation requires a very different approach than managing short-term market downturns.

Schedule a consultation with Arisaig Wealth Management.

Market outlook for late 2026 and 2027

To be transparent: no one can predict the future. Anyone claiming otherwise is misleading you. With that said, what can we expect for the rest of 2026?

Many factors will influence the stock market over the coming months, particularly upcoming events in the US such as financial reporting (especially tech and AI firms), the new US Federal Reserve governor, who will set US interest rates, and the mid-term elections.

Further afield, we can expect inflation and economic growth figures to be published in Europe, Asia and the rest of the world, market reactions to the new UK Prime Minister, and market changes depending on whether global conflicts progress towards peace.

S&P 500 concentration in tech and AI

One risk factor when investing in the stock market is its weighting toward the largest companies on the US stock market, which are all in the same sectors: tech and AI.

The S&P500 contains the largest 500 companies on the US stock market by market capitalisation (the total value of all their shares). Currently, the top nine companies (1,8 percent of listed companies on the index) make up around 36,5 percent of the index value, and they all have a technology focus. More specifically, AI, and there has been a lot of excitement in this space.

The reality, however, is that market hype can inflate short-term stock prices, leaving them vulnerable to sharp corrections. Share prices must reflect actual earnings as well as future potential, and a bias to the latter, which happens when prices become inflated, can lead to corrections.

Markets generally go up over time, but not always in a straight line, so investors should be prepared for a market correction at some point. Although that does not mean you should sell everything and hold only cash.

We recommend a multi-factored approach, which means that what is right for one person might not be for the next. When considering investing and making plans for the future, it’s important to make decisions that are in line with your tolerance for market volatility and risk, time frame, objectives and your long-term plan, which may include the nuances of being an expat.

Three financial planning steps for expats

Now you're up to date on how the stock market has performed so far in 2026 and what we may see unfolding over the coming months. So, for anyone looking to invest in the Netherlands – what can you do?

Here are three tips to get you thinking:

1. Understand your core objectives: Take time to understand your why. Why are you investing? What is important to you, now and in the future? What are your goals? Write these down.
2. Partner with an independent expert: Speak with a professional like the team at Arisaig Wealth Management to align your goals with your actions and your portfolio. We can help you to invest with purpose.
3. Focus on your timeline, not daily noise: Focus on your objectives and your timelines. What may be risky in a month could be low risk over 10 years. This is where we help clients: to stay aligned to what is most important and to know when to act and when not to. This gives you the luxury of being able to mute some of the daily noise and have peace of mind that you are in control.